Großes Physikalisches Kolloquium | April 29, 16:45
Sociophysics: From First Ingredients to Successful Predictions
After a brief journey through the history of sociophysics, and a clear clarification of what sociophysics aims to be — and what it is not — I will illustrate its capability by presenting the foundational elements of the Galam Majority Model (GMM) of opinion dynamics. I will highlight the compelling mechanism of democratic minority spreading during open and free public debate. Drawing on the GMM, I will explain how I successfully predicted the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. I will also critically examine why my forecast for Trump’s victory in the 2020 election against Joe Biden fell short. Finally, I will conclude by presenting my insights into the robustness of the model, especially in light of the second Trump victory in the 2024 election.
CEVIPOF - Centre for Political Research, Sciences Po and CNRS, Paris, France
H3
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Contact: Fachschaft Physik